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- ...However, Short-cycle demand is likely to moderate
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 3 The Short-cycle Tracker has a fairly high correlation with Short-cycle General Industrial sales 2 Quarters out
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 4 Short Cycle Tracker shows a slight increase in the share of datapoints which are negative, so far in 2018
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 5 Short-cycle General Industrial product sales growth should slow through 2018
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- …However, Short-cycle demand is likely to moderate (CONT)
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 11 Global semiconductor sales growth, 3MMA
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 12 Americas semiconductor sales growth, 3MMA
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 13 NAFTA Truck Orders (3MMA Y-o-Y Change, %)
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 14 US Total Rig Count
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- Graphics Title: FIGURE 16 Organic Sales Growth is Underwhelming vs Prior cyclical upturns
- Valuations look high given the amplitude of organic growth rates… (CONT)
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 17 P/E Multiple vs Prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 18 P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs Prior cyclical upturns
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- Magnitude of the current pull-back is fairly unexceptional
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 25 Share Price Performance rel. to S&P vs Prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 26 Share Price Performance vs Prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 27 Short Cycle Share Price Performance relative to the S&P
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- Comparison with other ‘buckets’ of stocks
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 28 P/E vs Construction exposed companies
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 29 EV/EBITDA vs Construction exposed companies
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 30 Share Price Performance vs Oil & Gas exposed companies
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 31 EV/EBITDA vs Oil & Gas exposed companies
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- Appendix – Cycle Overviews & Co. Specific charts
- Overall Short Cycle Upturn Summary – Organic Sales Overview
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 32 Organic Sales Growth amplitude during 2003-2008 upturn – Prolonged, with fairly high growth throughout
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 33 Organic Sales Growth amplitude during 2009-2012 upturn – Steep, and of medium duration
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 34 Organic Sales Growth amplitude during 2013-2014 upturn – short and shallow
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 35 Organic Sales Growth amplitude, 2016-2018 so far
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- Overall Short Cycle Upturn Summary – P/E Multiple Overview
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 36 P/E multiple during 2003-2008 upturn
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 37 P/E multiple during 2009-2012 upturn
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 38 P/E multiple during 2013-2014 upturn
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 39 P/E multiple during 2016-2018 upturn so far
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- Company Specific Analysis - DOV
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 40 DOV Organic Sales Growth vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 41 DOV Share Price Performance vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 42 DOV P/E Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 43 DOV P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
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- Company Specific Analysis - EMR
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 44 EMR Organic Sales Growth vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 45 EMR Share Price Performance vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 46 EMR P/E Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 47 EMR P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
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- Company Specific Analysis - ETN
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 48 ETN Organic Sales Growth vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 49 ETN Share Price Performance vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 50 ETN P/E Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 51 ETN P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
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- Company Specific Analysis - KMT
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 52 KMT Organic Sales Growth vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 53 KMT Share Price Performance vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 54 KMT P/E Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 55 KMT P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
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- Company Specific Analysis - ROK
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 56 ROK Organic Sales Growth vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 57 ROK Share Price Performance vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 58 ROK P/E Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
- Graphics Title: FIGURE 59 ROK P/E Rel. to S&P Multiple vs prior cyclical upturns
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巴克莱-美股-股票策略-美国多行业：一次回调，但股票短期内仍有让人失望的空间
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